The future choice of technologies and co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction in Bangladesh power sector

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction on future technology selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. It also examines the implications of CO₂ emission reduction targets on energy security of the country. The analysis is based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based as well as clean, renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of over 1400 PJ to 4898 PJ compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 5.5–15.2% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario

Introduction

Electricity is a pre-requisite for technological development and economic growth of a nation. The future economic development of Bangladesh is likely to result in a rapid growth in demand for energy with accompanying shortages and problems. The country has been facing a severe power crisis for about a decade. Known reserves (e.g., natural gas, coal, and hydropower) of commercial primary energy sources in Bangladesh are limited in comparison to the development needs of the country [1]. Power generation in the country is almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, mainly natural gas that accounted for 81.4% of the total installed electricity generation capacity (5248 MW) in 2006 [2]. By that year, only about 42% of the total population had been connected to electricity [3], [4], with the vast majority being deprived of any power supply. The government of Bangladesh has declared that it aims to provide electricity for all by the year 2020, although at present there is a high, unsatisfied demand for energy, which is growing by more than 8% annually [5], [6].

Coal is expected to be the main fuel for electricity generation. The government of Bangladesh has planned to generate 2900 MW power from coal in the next 5 years [7], although coal power has adverse environmental effects and coal reserves are limited. The government has also focused on furnace-oil-based peaking power plants. As a result, the share of CO₂ emissions coming from fossil-fuel-based power plants in the national CO₂ inventory is expected to grow, and there is a growing dependency on imported fossil fuels for power generation.

Increasing the use of fossil fuels to meet the growing worldwide electricity demand, especially in developing countries, not only counteracts the need to prevent climate change globally but also has negative environmental effects locally. In Bangladesh, the power sector alone contributes 40% of the total CO₂ emissions [8], [9]. CO₂ is the principal greenhouse gas (GHG), produced mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. Improved efficiency in the use of fossil fuels and increased use of renewable energy sources are among the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emission [10]. In this case, it is necessary to develop and promote alternative energy sources that ensure energy security of Bangladesh without increasing environmental impacts.

Rising energy demand has lead to rapidly increasing GHG emissions from electricity generation in Bangladesh. Since developing countries are not obliged to reduce GHG emissions, studies in evaluating the impacts or co-benefits of GHG mitigation policies in developing countries are lacking [11]. For a developing country like Bangladesh, the evaluation of the impacts of GHG mitigation policies in the power sector would provide a basis for more comprehensive technological choice, and economic and environmental analysis. Such an evaluation would also support climate change mitigation policies aimed at sustainable power-sector development as part of the efforts to address the climate change issues identified in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which Bangladesh has already ratified. The Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005. The Kyoto Protocol included three flexibility mechanisms to allow Annex I countries (industrialized countries) to undertake climate change mitigation are: Joint implementation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and emission trading. The first and third only involve Annex I countries, while the CDM also involves developing countries. Under the CDM, established in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, Annex I countries can participate in the implementation of projects that reduce GHG emissions in non-Annex I countries. Even if the post-Kyoto regime were not agreed several industrialized countries are considering innovative schemes to commit themselves to curve the GHG concentration pattern. The World Bank has taken a leading position announcing its willingness to buy emission reductions to be generated after 2012 [10].

Since the objective of Bangladesh energy policy is to ensure environmentally sound, sustainable energy development programs and environmentally compatible electric energy [12], [13], this study examines the future technologies selection of CO₂ emission reduction targets in the Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. This study also analyzes the co-benefits concerning energy security of the country from the CO₂ emission reduction targets. A bottom-up least-cost energy system optimization model of Bangladesh was developed on the market allocation (MARKAL) modeling framework and the following scenarios were considered:

• 1)Base scenario: It presumes a continuation of current energy and economic dynamics and provides a reference for comparing impacts of future policies.
• 2)10% CO₂ emission reduction scenario: It evaluates the effects of CO₂ emission reduction in the entire energy-supply system. A 10% CO₂ emission reduction from 2015 onwards compared to the base scenario is considered.
• 3)20% CO₂ emission reduction scenario: A 20% CO₂ emission reduction from 2015 onwards compared to the base scenario is considered.
• 4)30% CO₂ emission reduction scenario: A 30% CO₂ emission reduction from 2015 onwards compared to the base scenario is considered.

MARKAL modeling

The MARKAL model mainly consists of the description of a large set of energy technologies, linked together by energy flows, jointly forming a reference energy system. The reference energy system is the structural backbone of MARKAL for any particular energy system and its great advantage is that it gives a graphic idea of the nature of the system. Another important characteristic of MARKAL is that it is driven by a set of demands for energy services. Feasible solutions are obtained only if all

Reference energy system of Bangladesh power sector

For the purpose of this study, MARKAL-Bangladesh was developed. A major part of the work was to develop input parameter values. In MARKAL, the reference energy system is the first step towards building a model of the Bangladesh power sector (Fig. 1). The reference energy system represents the activities and technologies of an energy system, depicting energy demands, energy conversion technologies, fuel mixes, and the resources required to satisfy energy service demands [17]. The reference

Generation capacity and electricity production

Under the base scenario, the total generation capacity is expected to increase from 10.64 GW in 2010 to 57.26 GW in 2035, i.e., at an average growth rate of 7% (Table 4). At the same time, the generation structure changes significantly. The share of gas-fired power plants reduces from 90% (9.59 GW) in 2010 to 39% (22.47 GW) in 2035 in total capacity, whereas the increase in the capacity of coal-based power plants 0.25 GW in 2010 to 28.73 GW in 2035 is extremely high. The switch from gas- to

Conclusions

This paper has analyzed the effects of selected CO₂ emission reduction targets on environmental emissions as well as those of energy technology and resource mix using the MARKAL model for the Bangladesh power sector. It has also discussed the energy security implications. In the base scenario, it is found that the total CO₂ emission would increase more than 10-fold during 2005–2035. As a result, the CO₂ per total primary energy supply would increase from 55 kg/GJ in 2005 to 80 kg/GJ in 2035

Acknowledgements

The paper is a part of the first author’s doctoral research, which is funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), and this author is most grateful to the DAAD for the financial support. We would also like to thank the anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.

References

• M. JamaluddinDraft SAARC regional trade study, country Report – Bangladesh, National consultant, Dhaka, Bangladesh(2008)

• M.N. IslamEnergy context in Bangladesh BPDB Annual Report 2005-06