Abstract
Over the last period of years, it has been observed that climate change has become a major issue affecting theagriculture sector. Impacts of climate change in agriculture are global concern but for Bangladesh where lives and livelihoods depend on agriculture, it’s becoming a great threat for national food security. Considering crop agriculture as the predominant factor in the national economy, this paper tries to focus on the climate change impact and vulnerability in Bangladeshi Agriculture; it also highlights various strategies that can be taken in response to climate change, ways to adapt to the altered situation and Bangladesh’s saline tolerant, flood tolerant and shorter maturity varieties of rice and other crops. From this study it also found that these strategies will help in short run and to continue this extensive agricultural extension services need to make these varieties available to the farmers. One immediate need is to start multi-disciplinary human capability development planning and plementation for climate and environmental management.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Climate Change, Agriculture, Food Security, Vulnerability
- Introduction
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of geographic exposure, low income and greater reliance on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture. People, exposed to the most severe climate-related hazards are often least able to cope with the associated impacts due to their limited adaptive capacity and according to Islam et al. (2011), will become even more susceptible in future. Its experiencing different types of natural disasters almost every year because of the global warming as well as climate change impacts, these are: Floods / Flash Floods (Almost 80% of the total area of the country is prone to flooding). Cyclones and Storm Surges (South and South-eastern Parts of the country were hit by Tropical Cyclones during the last few years). Salinity Intrusion (Almost the whole Coastal Belt along the Bay of Bengal is experiencing Salinity problem). Extreme Temperature and Drought (North and North-western regions of the country are suffering because of the Extreme Temperature problem). Climate change has already impacted on the life and livelihoods of the people in the coastal areas and in the arid and semi-arid regions of Bangladesh (MoP, 2011). In particular, the effects of climate change on agriculture and
other sectors are already evident. The agricultural sector is most likely to face significant yield reduction in future due to climate variability (Islam et al. 2011). Most importantly, crop agriculture is the most vulnerable to climate change among different sectors of the Bangladesh economy. One major determinant of fluctuations in crop yield is year-to year changes in climatic variables (Hazell, 1984; Anderson & Hazell, 1987). Over the last several decades, global warming has been observed on local, regional, and global scales (Boyles and Raman 2003; Du et al. 2004; Macdonald et al. 2005; Piao et al. 2010; Wu and Zhao 2010; Qiu et al. 2012). The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007a) report presents a detailed evaluation of longterm worldwide servations on climate change and a sound physical analysis of the potential trends of change in climate. The report concludes that global climate is very likely to get warmer in the near future. As scientific
evidence becomes more convincing that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will warm the planet (IPCC 2007a). It has become ever more important to understand the impacts of global warming. The impacts on agriculture are among the largest and the best documented. Bosello and Zhang (2005) stated that the relationships between climate change and agriculture are complex and manifold. They involve climatic and environmental aspects, social and economic responses. These last can take either the form of autonomous reactions or of planned economic or technological policies. This picture is complicated further: indeed climate change and agriculture interdependencies evolve dynamically over time, they often span over a large time and space scale and are still surrounded by large uncertainties.
- Agriculture of Bangladesh and Climate Change Scenario
Agriculture plays a vital role in the economy of Bangladesh. The contribution of agriculture was 20% of GDP and the crop subsector alone contributed 12% to GDP at constant prices in 2009-10 (GoB, 2010). Almost 85% of rural population is directly or indirectly involved in agriculture. Of all crops, rice plays the leading role by contributing 95% of total food production (GoB, 2010). Huq et al., 1996; Karim et al, 1996; Yu et al., 2010
3.The Climate of Bangladesh and Climate Change Impact
Bangladesh lies in the northeast of the Indian subcontinent on the Bay of Bengal. It is a predominantly low-lying country with several major rivers located mainly in the large delta formed by the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers. The population density is about 1000 persons per square kilometer; some 150 million people live in an area of 148,000 square kilometers. Bangladesh has a tropical climate; it is humid and warm throughout the year with a year round average temperature of 25°C. Rainfall is moderate to high across the country and ranges from 1400mm along the eastern border to 5100mm in the northeast.
Most of the rain falls during the monsoon season and from June to October flooding is common. There are two cyclone seasons which can bring devastating winds and tidal surges. The early season is in April and May whilst the late season lasts from September to November. Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change, in part because it is a low-lying and very flat country, subject to riverine flooding and vulnerable to sea level rise. The confluence of three great rivers – the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna makes the country a great deltaic plain. The extensive floodplains
are the main physiographic features of the country. Both riverine flooding and sea level rise can result in
inundation of crops; sea water, in particular, can result in salinization, causing permanent loss of currently productive agricultural land.
Impacts of climate change are already occurring, as measured by increasing temperatures, variable rainfall and an increase in climate-related extreme events such as floods, droughts, cyclone, sea level rise, salinity and soil erosion (Asaduzzamanet al., 2010; Yu et al., 2010; Hossain and Deb, 2011). These extreme climate events occur in Bangladesh almost every year, and sometimes more than once a year, affecting the crop agriculture sector adversely, particularly rice production (MoEF, 2005; Yamin et al., 2005). The climate of Bangladesh is characterized by high temperatures, heavy rainfall, high humidity, and fairly marked seasonal variations. More than 80 percent of the annual precipitation of the country occurs during the southwestern summer monsoons, from June through September. In recent years the weather pattern has been erratic, with the cool, dry season having considerably decreased—a change probably attributable to climate change.
Climate change by definition will alter temperature and rainfall patterns. Since agriculture is dependent on weather and crops are known to suffer yield losses when temperatures are too high, there is concern that warming caused by climate change will lower crop yields. Changes in rainfall might also cause reductions in yields, though at least in some places, changes in rainfall could lead to increases in yields. Climate change in Bangladesh is an especially serious concern since agriculture is such an important sector in the country. It contributes roughly 20 percent to gross domestic product (GDP), with crops representing 11.2 percent, livestock 2.7 percent, fisheries 4.5 percent, and forestry 1.8 percent (GoB 2010). Furthermore, the sector provides employment and income to some of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society. Between 2000 and 2003, agriculture provided work to about 52 percent of the labor force (BBS 2004).
4.Response of Bangladesh on Climate Change and Success
Bangladesh has taken a two-pronged approach to deal with climate change issue. One is vigorously participating in the international negotiations process for realisation of the goals under the Bali Action Plan (2007) and another one is preparing itself at home for necessary domestic action. Prepared National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) in 2005; identified 15 Priority projects, prepared Initial National Communication and preparing Second National Communication, made climate change an integral part of the new draft Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), developed Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP 2009), and national Water Management Plan. The Climate Change Action Plan is a 10-year program (2009-2018) to build the capacity and resilience of the country to meet the challenge of climate change. The BCCSAP is designed as a ‘living document’ to continue to implement the nation’s adaptation and mitigation programs, as well as to deepen understanding of the phenomenon. It has listed 44 different programs and 145 actions for implementation. In the first five year period (2009-13), the program will comprise six pillars: 1) Food security, social protection and
health, 2) Comprehensive Disaster Management, 3) Infrastructure, 4) Research and knowledge management, 5) Mitigation and low carbon development, and 6) Capacity building and institutional strengthening. The Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2009) confirmed that additional amount of allocation will be required for sustained adaptive measures. The Government of Bangladesh invested over 10 billion USD and adopts policies to combat climate change impacts (World Bank 2010). About 500 million USD is estimated to be needed to implement action plans of BCCSAP for first two years (MoEF 2009). A credible assessment is vital that must incorporate other sectors in a logical way. Costing for managing climatic disturbances in agriculture sector is calculated in terms of the amount of crop loss. However, more integrated approach considering issues for example – loss of agricultural land, damages lands, reduce employment, risk health, harms livestock, etc. to ascertain the total loss in figures. This is important in negotiations for funding in both home and abroad. Climate change impacts are not unknown to the policy makers. The National Adaptation Program of Actions (NAPA) provides guidance for adaptation measures taken up to combat climate change impacts. The revised version of National Agriculture Policy of 2011 has included climate change as one of its three priority areas. Some issues related to the impact from temperature rise and variation in precipitation on agriculture needs
further attention. The Agriculture Extension Policy of 1996 puts emphasis on sustainable agricultural however and explicit consideration extension of climate resilient variety or cropping pattern need incorporation. Similarly, the Integrated Pest Management Policy of 2002 need to provide guidance on climate change and disaster risk reduction issues. There is an implicit mentioning that the policy should increase self-reliance of farmers by promoting locally developed and crop management practices which eventually address adaptation to climate change and National Seed Policy (NSP) need to put the priority on seed production likely to be affected by climate change through technologies. Bangladesh has already developed salinity tolerant, flood tolerant and shorter maturity varieties of rice. This will
help in the short run. To continue this extensive agricultural extension services are needed to make these
varieties available to the farmers. But this is only the beginning: more varieties and appropriate ecosystem-based agricultural system need to be developed and popularized. One immediate need is to start multi-disciplinary human capability development planning and implementation for climate and environmental management.
5.Conclusion
Climate change, which is largely a result of burning fossil fuels, is already affecting the Earth’s temperature, precipitation, and hydrological cycles and its impacts heavily on Bangladesh, this concern should be seen as urgent and vigorous action called to stem the tide of a looming danger. The continual flood, droughts, temperature variation, erratic rainfall and salinity which results in crop losses calls for urgent attention. Despite some amounts of resilience shown by the population in the face of these with rice production target met and achieved, Price subsidy in agricultural inputs like fertilizer has contributed to make production cost bearable to
the farmer. Researches on stress tolerant technologies (seed, fertilizer, irrigation, agronomic practices) and their expansion acts as positive adaptive action against climate change. The Comprehensive and coordinated study on the real time impacts of climate change on crop production and assessment of the needs to avert the crisis must be carried out for making coherent policy decision. Continuous research, monitoring and knowledge management and development and transfer of technology, are needed to manage climate change and its impacts. Intensive training program for climate displaced community
to adapt and cope with new situation. The issue of climate change assumed special importance because of the accumulation of evidence of global warming and now it’s become as a big challenge. Almost all nations are effected and some more than others. It has been a big threat for global development and for the country like Bangladesh which is one of the most proactive developing countries on global scenario to the address the challenges of climate change. Climate change and its adverse impact has become a block against all efforts to mitigate the effects of national poverty situation and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDG).
References
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Anderson, J.R. and Hazell, P.B.R. (1987), ‘Variability in Grains Yields: Implications for Agricultural Resource and Policy in Developing Countries’, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London. BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). 2004. Labour Force Survey 2002-2003. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Ministry of Planning.
Bali Action Plan (2007), “Report of the Conference of the Parties on its thirteenth session”, held in Bali from 3 to 15 December 2007, [Online] Available://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf (10December 2013)
